There is no doubt that Australia are the clear underdogs heading into their World Cup Round of 16 match against Argentina.
However, the Socceroos have already defied the odds to qualify from their group with wins over Tunisia and Denmark.
So, can they take their surprise campaign to another level against La Albiceleste?
And just how big of an upset would a win be?
MORE: Socceroos World Cup prize money breakdown
Would Australia beating Argentina be the biggest upset in World Cup history?
There is no definitive measurement when it comes to ranking an upset, but Australia defeating Argentina in a knockout match would certainly be up there.
Priced as 14/1 outsiders by the bookmakers (full odds below), the Socceroos are heavy underdogs for the do-or-die clash.
Argentina’s team – loaded with elite talent – is objectively superior to Australia’s, with seriously enviable squad depth.
When it comes to market value, La Albiceleste also have their opponents well and truly covered.
According to Boardroom, Argentina have an estimated squad market value of €633.2 million (US$652.1m / AU$981.6m), whilst Australia have a contrasting value of €38.34 million (US$40.4m / AU$59.4m).
However, a football game isn’t just decided by money and talent – tactics, attitude and organisation play a major role.
Still, if Australia want to progress to the quarter-finals, they’re going to need all three of those things (and more) to challenge the two-time World Cup winners.
If they do pull off the win, it would arguably be one of the biggest upsets in the history of the tournament.
Victory is a state of mind.
— Socceroos (@Socceroos) December 2, 2022
Biggest upsets in World Cup history
Whilst there is no definitive ranking, The Sporting News has compiled the top ten shock results in the history of the World Cup.
Argentina feature two times in the list, with their defeat to Saudi Arabia last month and loss to Cameroon in 1990 taking spots No. 3 and No. 2, respectively.
Top of the rankings is France’s unexpected 1-0 loss to Senegal in 2002, with Les Bleus suffering an opening match defeat as reigning champions.
Biggest upsets of the 2022 World Cup
This current tournament has already delivered a number of memorable upsets.
Saudi Arabia’s stunning 2-1 win against Argentina in the group stage has undoubtedly been the biggest shocks so far in Qatar.
In fact, according to data analyst Nielson Gracenote, the victory is statistically the biggest upset in World Cup history, with the Falcons given just an 8.7 per cent chance of picking up three points.
Data isn’t always everything in football, but it certainly indicates the magnitude of Saudi Arabia’s achievement.
Japan’s wins over Germany and Spain are other notable upsets from this current tournament, with Morocco’s 2-0 victory against Belgium, South Korea’s 2-1 result against Portugal and Cameroon’s 1-0 triumph over favourites Brazil also worthy of a mention.
Japan makes history (again)!
Witness how the Samurai Blue finished on top of Group E!
— FIFA World Cup (@FIFAWorldCup) December 1, 2022
Australia vs Argentina odds for World Cup Round of 16 match
As you’d expect, the bookmakers are heavily favouring Argentina ahead of this game.
After suffering a shock 2-1 loss to Saudi Arabia in their opening match, Messi’s side bounced back by claiming consecutive 2-0 wins.
Not to be outdone, Australia also enter this match on the back of two straight 1-0 victories.
Despite that similar form, these two sides boast squads of vastly different quality and as such the odds are leaning overwhelmingly Argentina’s way.
In fact, the bookmakers seem to believe the Socceroos will be lucky to get on the scoresheet altogether despite the fact they’ve scored in their past three games.
to score Y / N
|+175 / -256||+155 / -256||2.70 / 1.44|
|Over / Under
|-147 / +105||-143 / +108||1.70 / 2.10|
Australia vs Argentina head-to-head record
Australia have faced Argentina on seven separate occasions.
In the first match between the two nations, the Socceroos recorded a shock 4-1 victory at the Bicentennial Gold Cup.
However, it has been Argentine domination since, with the Albicelestes picking up five wins out of the following six clashes.
The only draw between Australia and Argentina came in 1993 during a World Cup playoff match.
|Jul. 14, 1988||Bicentennial Gold Cup||4-1 AUS|
|Jun. 18, 1992||International Friendly||2-0 ARG|
|Oct. 31, 1993||FIFA World Cup (play-off)||1-1 DRAW|
|Nov. 17, 1993||FIFA World Cup (play-off)||1-0 ARG|
|Jun. 30, 1995||International Friendly||2-0 ARG|
|Jun. 18, 2005||FIFA Confederations Cup||4-2 ARG|
|Sep. 11, 2007||International Friendly||1-0 ARG|
When is Argentina vs Australia?
Argentina will face Argentina at Ahmad bin Ali Stadium in Al-Rayyan on Saturday, December 3, with kickoff at 22:00 local time in Qatar.
Here’s how that translates into time zones across some of the world’s major territories.
|Hong Kong||03:00 HKT*|
|New Zealand||08:00 NZDT*|
* Following Day (Sunday, Dec. 4)