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PGA Expert Betting Predictions for the WM Phoenix Open: Three keys for winning the annual tournament at TPC Scottsdale

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The WM Phoenix Open is the third-most predictive tournament on the PGA TOUR. The first is the Masters and the second is the Sony Open. The significance of that statement cannot be undervalued. “Most predictive” means that competitors who historically play well at a course will continue to play well there. These horses for courses either have the skill set needed to annually contend, or they just really love the event. In the case of the WMPO, it is probably a bit of both!

WM Phoenix Open 2023: Tournament & trends

The Phoenix Open moved to the Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale in 1987. Thirty-six years later, the atmosphere surrounding this designated PGA TOUR event only continues to get better. Although some golf purists may mind all the craziness, it is obvious from a golf perspective the tournament has some serious swagger.

  • Each of the last eight winners are either major champions or winners of the PLAYERS Championship.
  • Eight of the Top 10 players are entered alongside 22 of the Top 25 in the Official World Golf Ranking.
  • The purse has been raised to $20 million dollars with a winner’s check worth $3.6 million.
  • More than 600,000 fans will converge on Scottsdale this week to attend. That makes the WMPO the second-largest attended sporting event in the world behind the Olympics.

For a course that is extremely predictive, fan familiar, and susceptible to scoring, I wonder why champions tend to excel here. In the last ten years:

  • The average winning score is 17 under par.
  • The average winner’s pre-tournament odds are +3900.
  • Of those winners, only one had odds greater than +5000 in the last decade.

Competition is tight at TPC Scottsdale. The average cutline since 2013 is -0.3 under par. Competitively, this course creates epic drama. Who could forget our lead into Super Bowl 56 last year, when Scottie Scheffler defeated Patrick Cantlay in a playoff. In fact, there have been eight playoffs needed in the last 15 years to help decide the winner.

The scorecard says Par 71 measuring 7,261 yards, but the pros will be playing at 1,250 above sea level in Phoenix. The ball will be flying in the desert across this barren landscape dotted with green holes. Successful players will need to navigate a variety of tee shots bending in both directions. Seven of the holes have water in play and on top of the Arizona sand there are sixty-seven more bunkers.

After close analysis of the last ten winners, one can start to see how they collected their trophy. It all starts on approach, with the majority of shots falling in the 150-175 yard range. Even though each of them gained an average of 5.5 strokes on approach en route to winning, their biggest gains against the field came in this range. Statistically, the best mid-iron players in this field are Tom Kim, Collin Morikawa, Joel Dahmen, Justin Lower, and Justin Thomas.

The second-strongest trend came on the putting green. Seven out of the last 10 champions gained over three strokes on the green with their flatstick. Most will comment that TPC Scottsdale has some mundane green complexes, but the research shows picking putters makes a difference. Here’s the Top 5 flatstick aficionados in the field: Taylor Montgomery, Maverick McNealy, Andrew Putnam, Sam Burns, and Brendon Todd.

TPC Scottsdale registered the longest average driving distance on the PGA TOUR last season. Players let it rip in the desert, and when you look at the past winners one can easily see why. Hideki has won twice and so has Brooks. Gary Woodland, Phil Mickelson, and Scottie Scheffler are also recent champions. Speed matters for success and even though the shorter hitters benefit from a little altitude, the longer ones bomb it even more. The top tee shot swingers are: Jon Rahm, Cam Young, Rory McIlroy, Keith Mitchell, and Taylor Pendrith.

If you take the averages from just those three strokes gained categories alone, you would gain an average of over 13 strokes against the field. Considering most PGA TOUR winners only need to gain about 10 or 11 strokes each week to win, these skills succinctly show you why the Stadium Course is so predictive.

Speaking of predictions, here’s the odds to win and our top wagers for the WM Phoenix Open.

WM Phoenix Open 2023: Odds

Player Odds to Win
Jon Rahm +750
Rory McIlroy +800
Scottie Scheffler +1200
Xander Schauffele +1600
Collin Morikawa +1800
Justin Thomas +2000
Patrick Cantlay +2000
Tony Finau +2000
Max Homa +2200
Cameron Young +2800
Hideki Matsuyama +2800
Sungjae Im +2800
Tom Kim +3000
Viktor Hovland +3300
Jordan Spieth +4000
Matt Fitzpatrick +4000
Sahith Theegala +4000
Sam Burns +4000
Alex Noren +5500
Jason Day +5500
Taylor Montgomery +5500
Tyrrell Hatton +5500
Keegan Bradley +6600
Rickie Fowler +6600
Keith Mitchell +6600
Billy Horschel +8000
Brian Harman +8000
Corey Conners +8000
Russell Henley +8000
Seamus Power +8000
Shane Lowry +8000
Si Woo Kim +8000
Tommy Fleetwood +8000
Chris Kirk +9000
J.T. Poston +9000
Lucas Herbert +9000
Tom Hoge +9000
Aaron Wise +10000
Brendan Steele +10000
Denny McCarthy +10000
J.J. Spaun +10000
K.H. Lee +10000
Maverick McNealy +10000
Taylor Pendrith +10000
Adam Hadwin +12500
Andrew Putnam +12500
Brendon Todd +12500
Gary Woodland +12500
Beau Hossler +15000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +15000
Emiliano Grillo +15000
Francesco Molinari +15000
Garrick Higgo +15000
Hayden Buckley +15000
Joel Dahmen +15000
Kurt Kitayama +15000
Matt Kuchar +15000
Scott Stallings +15000
Taylor Moore +15000
Wyndham Clark +15000
Luke List +17500
Brandon Wu +20000
David Lipsky +20000
Davis Thompson +20000
Jhonattan Vegas +20000
Patrick Rodgers +20000
Russell Knox +20000
Sam Ryder +20000
Trey Mullinax +20000
Aaron Rai +25000
Adam Svensson +25000
Cameron Champ +25000
Davis Riley +25000
Harris English +25000
Kevin Kisner +25000
Mackenzie Hughes +25000
Mark Hubbard +25000
Martin Laird +25000
Matt Wallace +25000
Matthew NeSmith +25000
Nick Taylor +25000
Patton Kizzire +25000
Ryan Palmer +25000
Stephan Jaeger +25000
Webb Simpson +25000
Callum Tarren +30000
Erik van Rooyen +30000
Greyson Sigg +30000
Nate Lashley +30000
Peter Malnati +30000
Ryan Moore +30000
Stewart Cink +30000
Chez Reavie +35000
Scott Piercy +35000
Adam Schenk +40000
Charley Hoffman +40000
Chesson Hadley +40000
Danny Lee +40000
Doc Redman +40000
Dylan Frittelli +40000
James Hahn +40000
Justin Lower +40000
Kevin Streelman +40000
Lee Hodges +40000
Matthias Schwab +40000
Michael Thompson +40000
Troy Merritt +40000
Adam Long +50000
Austin Smotherman +50000
Doug Ghim +50000
J. B. Holmes +50000
Jimmy Walker +50000
Kevin Tway +50000
Lucas Glover +50000
Richy Werenski +50000
Zach Johnson +50000
Chad Ramey +75000
Kramer Hickok +75000
Robert Streb +75000
Rory Sabbatini +75000
Tyler Duncan +75000
Andrew Landry +100000
Brian Gay +100000
Jim Herman +100000
Kelly Kraft +100000
Max McGreevy +100000
Nick Watney +100000
Ricky Barnes +100000
Ryan Brehm +100000
Brett White +100000
Andre Metzger +100000
D. Ward +100000
M. Hopper +200000

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering winners, placements, H2H matchups, One and Done picks, and DFS recommendations please go to Read The Line and subscribe. For now, let’s look at the remaining odds for the 2023 WM Phoenix Open. Good luck and enjoy the Super weekend!

WM Phoenix Open 2023: Best bets

Placement bets are a great opportunity to win a little extra cash. Unlike H2H matchups, these opportunities usually carry positive odds. With solid expert research many of these bets can be banked quite easily. Check out the following two tremendous props on BetMGM.

We established it takes a major player to compete and contend at the WMPO. Jason Day has a PGA Championship and PLAYERS trophy on his mantle. The former No. 1 ranked player in the world has six Top 21 finishes in eight starts this PGA TOUR season. In his last five events, he’s been awesome in Par 4 scoring, on approach (gain 1.5 strokes), off the tee (gain 1.6 strokes) and avoiding bogeys. His excellent mid-iron game and putter fit nicely into a Top 20 finish (+200) in the desert this week. 

The best prop bet opportunities always take a little extra time to find. Most combination bets are a risk, but the books aren’t always right. Collin Morikawa and Max Homa are two of the hottest golfers in the world. On a course that rewards approach play, these two attack greens like bears in a campground. Yes the two Cal standouts haven’t finished outside the Top 3 in any event this year! When they both finish inside the Top 20 (including ties) the payout is +230. I’m already betting this win on the Super Bowl coin toss!

It certainly is Super Bowl weekend and this Sunday is all about the big win. I’ll leave the pigskin picks to those experts, but my money is on Collin Morikawa (+1800) or Tom Kim (+3000) to win the WMPO. Morikawa has finished 2nd and 3rd this season while the last time Kim played in the desert he won in Las Vegas. Both are available on BetMGM, so get to the book and bet on two of the best iron players alive. Tee to Green each has the skills to set themselves apart at TPC Scottsdale.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.


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