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HomeSportsPGA Expert Betting Predictions for The Genesis Invitational 2023: Be like Bubba

PGA Expert Betting Predictions for The Genesis Invitational 2023: Be like Bubba

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Only three men have won The Genesis Invitational three times; Ben Hogan, Arnold Palmer, and Bubba Watson. Believe it or not, if you plan to bet this weekend, I’m here to tell you to be like Bubba!

Palmer did not win his three Los Angeles Opens at Riviera Country Club. Although “Riv” has hosted fifty-nine editions, Ben Hogan only won two of them. His third victory at Riviera came in the 1948 US Open. So that leaves Bubba as the most modern player to have conquered Riviera multiple times. The two-time Masters winner and now LIV Golf competitor is a remarkable ball striker who thrives on difficult courses that require superior shot making skills.

Let’s first take a look at the odds for the 2023 Genesis Invitational, then discuss the tournament and course itself, and finally make our best bets and predictions.

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

The Genesis Invitational 2023: Betting odds

Golfer Winner
Jon Rahm +750
Scottie Scheffler +1000
Rory McIlroy +1000
Justin Thomas +1400
Xander Schauffele +1600
Tony Finau +1800
Max Homa +2000
Collin Morikawa +2000
Viktor Hovland +2500
Sungjae Im +2500
Patrick Cantlay +2500
Sam Burns +2800
Jordan Spieth +3000
Cameron Young +3000
Will Zalatoris +3500
Tom Kim +3500
Hideki Matsuyama +3500
Matt Fitzpatrick +4000
Jason Day +4000
Tyrrell Hatton +4500
Adam Scott +5000
Rickie Fowler +6000
Sahith Theegala +7000
Justin Rose +7000
Keegan Bradley +7500
Wyndham Clark +8000
Shane Lowry +8000
Tommy Fleetwood +9000
Taylor Montgomery +9000
Russell Henley +9000
Nick Taylor +9000
Tom Hoge +10000
Tiger Woods +10000
Si Woo Kim +10000
Corey Conners +10000
Brian Harman +10000
Alex Noren +10000
Keith Mitchell +11000
Adam Hadwin +11000
Seamus Power +13000
Matt Kuchar +13000
Lucas Herbert +13000
K.H. Lee +13000
J.T. Poston +13000
Denny McCarthy +13000
Cam Davis +13000
Billy Horschel +13000
Taylor Moore +15000
Scott Stallings +15000
Kurt Kitayama +15000
Beau Hossler +15000
Thomas Detry +18000
Patrick Rodgers +18000
Joel Dahmen +18000
J.J. Spaun +18000
Gary Woodland +18000
Adrian Meronk +18000
Hayden Buckley +20000
Emiliano Grillo +20000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +20000
Andrew Putnam +20000
Alex Smalley +20000
Trey Mullinax +25000
Sepp Straka +25000
Sam Ryder +25000
Nick Hardy +25000
Mackenzie Hughes +25000
Luke List +25000
Justin Suh +25000
Jhonattan Vegas +25000
James Hahn +25000
Harris English +25000
Francesco Molinari +25000
Davis Thompson +25000
Cameron Champ +25000
Brendon Todd +25000
Brendan Steele +25000
Brandon Wu +25000
S.H. Kim +30000
Matthew NeSmith +30000
Matt Wallace +30000
Martin Laird +30000
Kevin Kisner +30000
Adam Svensson +30000
Stephan Jaeger +35000
Russell Knox +35000
Lanto Griffin +35000
Greyson Sigg +35000
Dylan Frittelli +35000
Callum Tarren +35000
Aaron Rai +35000
Nate Lashley +40000
Lee Hodges +40000
David Lipsky +40000
Danny Willett +40000
Chez Reavie +40000
Ben Taylor +40000
Adam Schenk +40000
Troy Merritt +50000
Stewart Cink +50000
Patton Kizzire +50000
Mark Hubbard +50000
Kevin Streelman +50000
Keita Nakajima +50000
Chesson Hadley +50000
Adam Long +50000
Scott Piercy +60000
Peter Malnati +60000
Michael Thompson +60000
Justin Lower +60000
Doug Ghim +60000
Danny Lee +60000
Luke Donald +80000
Lucas Glover +80000
J.B. Holmes +80000
Doc Redman +80000
Yeongsu Kim +100000
Matthias Schwab +100000
Kevin Tway +100000
Austin Smotherman +100000
Tyler Duncan +150000
Robert Streb +150000
Kramer Hickok +150000
Kelly Kraft +150000
Chad Ramey +200000
Ryan Brehm +250000
Nick Watney +250000
Max McGreevy +250000
Marcus Byrd +250000

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering winners, placements, H2H matchups, One and Done picks, and DFS recommendations please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

The Genesis Invitational 2023: Tournament & course info, past results and trends

Before the Bubba breakdown, let’s first look a little deeper at Riviera Country Club, the historic host of The Genesis Invitational. The original George Thomas design is a Par 71 layout that covers 7,322 yards. Set in a valley amongst the Santa Monica mountains, this impeccable Los Angeles golf landscape is an amazing test of golf skill. The course is covered in 58 bunkers and tree-lined fairways. Those fairways meander in both directions and the green complexes are equally as complicated.

The course sits about two miles from the Pacific Ocean, so this coastal climate can cause the players to question their carry distances. Although early forecasts don’t call for much wind, it always seems to be a little breezy this close to the water. Riviera tests all aspects of your game and the statistics behind Bubba’s three wins (2014, 2016, 2018) succinctly display such.

In those years, Watson gained on average four strokes against the field off the tee. Another five strokes on approach, two around the green and four more putting. This proves you need to be very well rounded to win at Riviera. If we take each skill separately, we can start to build a blueprint for 2023 betting success.

The best drivers in the field are: Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, and Xander Schauffele. These men can attack this course from the tee. Just like Bubba they can shape the ball both ways and find the fairway. Riviera is all about angles. Twelve of the driving holes have doglegs.

Once you find yourself on approach, 70% of the time you will be using a mid-iron coming in from 150-200 yards. Of the favorites in this field, the best approach artists are: Will Zalatoris, Tom Kim, Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, and Jason Day. With an average green size of 7,500 square feet these are not big targets. Being able to curve the ball like Bubba will actually make the landing areas larger.

Watson saving two shots around the green was important. PGA TOUR players miss these greens 8% more than the tour average. Getting up and down will build momentum and keep that score going low. At the top of the odds board, the players with the most short game skill are: Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Max Homa.

Bubba was a good putter on difficult greens and Poa grass. Three wins here and two at Augusta National prove it. Completing the skill set list, we see these favorites can roll the rock: Jon Rahm, Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, and Justin Rose. Putting inside ten feet will be a factor and each of these guys can make their fair share.

The Bubba blueprint shows us the way. As a PGA Professional, it makes sense to me. Riviera tests all aspects of your game. A couple names we just mentioned pop up multiple times. Rahm and Rory are a good example — yet their odds aren’t necessarily advantageous to betting them outright. As I continued to research the field of 130 competitors looking for complete players, I found the following three best bets.

Best Bet to Win: Xander Schauffele

Schauffele is extremely well-rounded. He ranks in the Top 30 in each of these major strokes gained categories. What I love most about his game is the consistency. In his last 14 starts, he has two wins and twelve Top 15 finishes. He consistently puts himself in contention. The southern California native has a great history at Riviera and can win against a great field. BetMGM has him listed at +1600. X marks the spot this weekend. 

Best Bet to Place Top 20: Hideki Matsuyama and Adam Scott

Two men who have incredible records at Riviera are Hideki Matsuyama and Adam Scott. They have ten combined Top 10 finishes. Scott has two wins and Matsuyama two Top 5’s. Their combined scoring average is under 70 and each is in great form. FanDuel is offering Scott +105 and Matsuyama -110 to finish in the Top 20. Take these two veterans to play well. 

Best Bet to Make the Cut: Tiger Woods

Tiger Woods

Tiger Woods has returned to PGA TOUR play. It has been 844 days since his last non-major start and Woods looks ready. I sat in his Tuesday press conference and heard him say he can contend. In twelve professional starts at the Genesis he has nine Top 20 finishes. He only needs to make the weekend and FanDuel is offering his odds to make the cut at +156. Woods did not return for fun, he’ll play all four days. 

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.

Credit: sportingnews.com

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