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Packers playoff picture: Green Bay’s updated NFC wild-card chances to still make NFL playoffs

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The Packers are 5-8 going into the final Monday night game of Week 15, in which they will host the Rams. Green Bay still has some motivation to finish strong with Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur as it is barely alive in the NFC playoff race.

There’s no more chance to repeat as NFC North champions, after the Vikings (11-3) clinched the division title on Saturday night. But like the second-place Lions, the Packers are trying to make a late surge into a wild-card spot.

Here’s breaking down Green Bay’s slim chances to sneak into the NFC bracket as at least a No. 7 seed:

MORE: Updated AFC, NFC playoff picture for Week 15 of 2022 season

Packers playoff picture

The Packers currently sit in the NFC’s No. 10 position at 5-8. They are 1.5 games behind the No. 8 Seahawks and No. 9 Lions, who are both 7-7. They are two games behind the No. 7 Commanders, who fell to 7-6-1 with their Sunday night loss to the new No. 6 Giants, now 8-5-1.

Behind the Packers are three 5-9 NFC South teams focused on more on their division race now: the Panthers, Saints and Falcons.

What playoff tiebreakers are in the Packers’ favor?

The Packers’ biggest NFC wins are not too helpful for their current situation, given they came against the No. 4 Buccaneers (6-8) and No. 5 Cowboys (10-4).

Although the ties likely mean the Packers can’t finish with the same record as either the Giants or the Commanders, they lost to both teams in Weeks 5 and 7, respectively. Green Bay also lost at Detroit in the first meeting in Week 9. The Packers need to improve their conference record, which is 4-5, which is little worse than the Seahawks (5-6), whom they haven’t or don’t play.

MORE: Explaining of NFL’s tiebreakers work for playoff picture

Packers’ remaining schedule

The Packers are well favored to beat the Rams (4-9) at home to close Week 15. Then they have a tough spot at the AFC No. 6 Dolphins (8-6) in Miami in Week 16. They close with two more Lambeau Field games, rematches with the Vikings and Lions in Weeks 17 and 18.

Can the Packers still make the playoffs?

The Packers need to first run the table to improve to 9-8, because getting an NFC wild card should at least require an above-.500 record.

The Giants finish with the Vikings, Colts and Eagles, with a chance to face Philadelphia backups in Week 18. The Commanders still need to play the 49ers, Browns and Cowboys, with a chance to face Dallas backups in Week 18.

The Lions play at the Panthers and host the Bears the next two weeks, very favorable matchups before facing the Packers. The Seahawks need to deal with the Chiefs and Jets before their home game vs. the Rams.

The Packers need to take care of their schedule and need to get several breaks from the right other results involving multiple teams. That gives them a less than 5 percent chance of making the playoffs, which will drop to zero should they lose one more game.


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