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Netherlands vs Ecuador prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for World Cup 2022 group stage

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The second round of group stage action gets under way at the 2022 FIFA World Cup as the Netherlands take on Ecuador in Group A.

Both sides are coming off comprehensive 2-0 victories in their first games, with the Netherlands taking down Senegal and Ecuador downing hosts Qatar.

It was more elementary for Ecuador who dominated the opener and got a brace from in-form striker Enner Valencia. The Netherlands, meanwhile, were nervy against Senegal, but managed to pull out a pair of goals late courtesy of Cody Gakpo and Davy Klaasen.

With both teams tied atop the group, this match will go a long way towards not only determining which side will qualify, but also who will top the group, a vitally important distinction for obtaining a softer draw in the Round of 16.

MORE: FIFA World Cup daily picks & predictions from The Sporting News

Netherlands vs Ecuador odds

Netherlands are tipped to beat Ecuador in their second Group A match of the tournament, despite not looking terribly convincing in their opener against Senegal. Still, their attacking firepower makes the Dutch dangerous, and Ecuador could be without their talisman in this match.

It’s the question marks around Valencia that are tipping the scales here towards fewer goals, with the under and both teams not to score both featuring tilted odds.

Odds via BetMGM (USA), Sports Interaction (Canada), SkyBet (UK), and LadBrokes (Australia).

  BetMGM Sports
SkyBet LadBrokes
Netherlands win -125 1.77 3/4 4/5
Draw +250 3.39 12/5 12/5
Ecuador win +360 4.55 7/2 18/5
Both teams
to score Y / N
+100 / -135 1.88 / 1.73 10/11, 4/5 19/20, 4/5
Over / Under
2.5 goals
+105 / -150 2.07 / 1.71 11/10, 4/6 11/10, 4/6
Netherlands -0.5 -135 1.79
Ecuador +0.5 +100 1.99

Netherlands vs Ecuador: 3 things to know

Netherlands versus Ecuador team news

Prior to the opening match, Netherlands boss Louis van Gaal stated that Memphis Depay would miss the game due to injury. Then, he appeared as a substitute off the bench. With that, it’s possible that Depay could be available to start this game, but Van Gaal’s comments mean it’s anyone’s guess.

Ecuador saw talisman Valencia come off with a knee injury in the 77th minute after scoring both goals in the opener  a massive concern for a team that doesn’t have anybody nearly as potent up front. The only other injury concern for La Tri is 25-year-old winger Joao Rojas who is not at the tournament due to a torn ACL.

MORE: Full injury tracker for all 32 teams at the 2022 FIFA World Cup

Netherlands vs Ecuador key stats

  • These two teams have met twice previously, both in international friendlies. The Netherlands won the first match 1-0 in 2006, while Ecuador managed a 1-1 draw in the other eight years ago. 
  • Netherlands have not lost under Van Gaal since he was hired for his third stint as national team manager in September of 2021 a run of 16 matches unbeaten.
  • Ecuador have not conceded a single goal since Argentina’s Julian Alvarez scored in the 24th minute of their final World Cup qualifier back in March, a run of 606 consecutive minutes without conceding.

Netherlands vs Ecuador match facts

  • Date: Friday, November 25
  • Kickoff Time: 11am ET / 4pm GMT / 3am AEDT (Tue, Nov. 22)
  • Location: Khalifa International Stadium
  • Official: TBD

Netherlands vs Ecuador prediction

  • Moneyline lean: Netherlands (-125, 4/5)
  • Against the spread lean: Netherlands -0.5 (-135, 3/4)
  • Score prediction: Netherlands 1-0 

Ecuador as a team are fairly very similar to Senegal, but with a better central striker. Still, it will be very difficult for the South American side to find a way through the best team in Group A to secure a result.

Both teams have an inside track towards qualification, and victory by either side would officially confirm a place in the knockout stage. 

MORE: How to watch Netherlands vs. Ecuador in World Cup Group A match

Netherlands vs Ecuador: Best bets

With both sides taking a giant leap towards qualification with wins in their opening games, there won’t be quite as much of an impetus or urgency for either nation to grab a winner here. Still, nothing is decided, and topping the group will be important when looking to avoid drawing likely Group B winners England in the last 16.

Netherlands vs Ecuador best bet

  • Pick: Both teams not to score
  • Odds: -135 (BetMGM)

Netherlands have wildly outperformed their expected goals value on multiple occasions over their past seven matches  and at some point that may come to roost. Against Senegal in the group stage opener, they scored twice while hardly creating any chances (0.67 xG). Against a defensively stout side like Ecuador  who can also keep the ball for stretches when needed  Netherlands will find it hard to get through.

Netherlands vs Ecuador prop bet

  • Pick: Over 3.5 cards
  • Odds: Not yet available (BetMGM)

Both these teams have at least one player who is a walking yellow card. The Netherlands must encourage Matthijs de Ligt to learn some disciplinary tact, while Jhegson ‘Sebas’ Mendez was lucky not to get a red card for a bad tackle in Ecuador’s opening game.

With Ecuador likely looking to get physical with the Netherlands, and a few Dutch players possibly getting frustrated, this could be a hack-fest and produce a host of cards.

Note: Odds on cards are usually not released until referee assignments are confirmed, which has been happening about 2 days in advance of each match.


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