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Juan Francisco Estrada vs. Roman Gonzalez 3 odds, betting trends, predictions, expert picks for 2022 boxing trilogy

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Two game-changing fighters are ready to complete their rivalry following a historic second fight. Juan Francisco Estrada defends The Ring super-flyweight title against Roman “Chocolatito” Gonzalez on December 3.

Also on the line will be the vacant WBC super-flyweight title. The fight takes place inside Arizona’s Desert Diamond Arena. 

The two first met in 2012, with Gonzalez beating Estrada via unanimous decision for the WBA light-flyweight title. In a time when bigger fighters were getting exposure, both broke the glass ceiling and showcased their skills to a worldwide audience. Gonzalez earned $700K against Estrada in the second fight, a big boost from the $200K payday he took home against Edgar Sosa in 2015. 

“I never imagined [these purses and exposure],” Gonzalez told ESPN, via a translator. “I’m very happy that today they are valuing more of the smaller divisions. And I hope to God they keep following the new ones, the ones that are coming up, the ones that are rising just like us.”

MORE: Join DAZN to watch Estrada vs. Gonzalez 3

In the second fight, a super flyweight-record 2,529 punches were thrown, with Estrada landing 314 of 1,212 shots (26% connect rate) while Gonzalez landed 391 of 1,317 punches (30% connect rate). Estrada beat Gonzalez via split decision. 

“I think I did enough to win,” Estrada stated after the fight, via ESPN. “Chocolatito is a great fighter, and I think he deserves a trilogy. I knew it was a close fight. I didn’t know if I was up or down, but I knew I had to close out the fight in the last two rounds… It was a better fight than the first one.”

Following delays, both are looking to continue what they started. Will the third fight trump the first two?

The Sporting News is here to give some insight on how to bet on this trilogy fight. 

Odds for Juan Francisco Estrada vs. Roman Gonzalez 3

Per Caesars, “Chocolatito” is the -175 favorite, while Estrada is the +150 underdog.

In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Gonzalez is the -226 favorite, while Estrada is the +161 underdog. 

In the second fight between the two, Estrada was the -174 favorite, while Gonzalez was the +136 underdog. 

MORE: How to bet on combat sports

Betting trends for Juan Francisco Estrada vs. Roman Gonzalez 3

Per FanDuel:

  • Estrada via KO/TKO:+660
  • Estrada via decision: +320
  • Gonzalez via KO/TKO: +440
  • Gonzalez via decision: -105
  • Draw: +160

MORE: Join DAZN to watch Estrada vs. Gonzalez 3

Juan Francisco Estrada vs. Roman Gonzalez 3 prediction

Like the last two fights, both competitors will play a game of chess to see who can one up the other. Both fighters are high up there when it comes to offense among active competitors. 

Gonzalez ranks second among active fighters with 89.2 punches thrown per round. He is first with 32.3 of them landing. Estrada is sixth with 76.2 shots thrown per round. He is once again sixth with 25.1 landing. Gonzalez ranks second by throwing 65.6 shots per round for power, with 27.8 of them connecting. Estrada is sixth with 53.9 thrown and about 20.1 landing. 

Gonzalez’s opponents land about 18.4 shots per round, which could help Estrada. Estrada did land 314 against “Chocolatito” in the rematch, per Compubox. Will Estrada learn to turn it up a notch against his rival, who landed 391 shots? 

MORE: Juan Francisco Estrada vs. Roman Gonzalez 3: A friendly rivalry

“With what I’ve been preparing and what’s left I feel I can beat Roman (Gonzalez) by knockout. He is a very strong fighter who will go down in boxing history and we want to beat him convincingly,” Estrada told DAZN.

The two were supposed to fight one another in October 2021, but Gonzalez contracted COVID-19. A new date was booked for this past March, but Estrada backed out this time after also testing positive for COVID-19. Will health play a factor in this? 

Skill wise, both appear to be at the top of their game. That is especially true for Gonzalez, 35, who, outside of the Estrada loss, has knocked out three of the five opponents he has beaten. Estrada is on a roll, winning seven in a row. 

Estrada and Gonzalez are both fresh. Something has got to give. It is a tough matchup featuring two of the very best to put on gloves. The Sporting News is predicting a late Fight of the Year entry for 2022, and it could potentially surpass the other candidates. As far as a winner is concerned, it will be another back and forth affair, with Gonzalez securing the win on the scorecards. The difference from the scorecards may be a round or two. 

One thing is for sure: we can all expect fireworks. 

Sporting News prediction: Gonzalez via unanimous decision


Credit: sportingnews.com

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