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Germany vs. Japan prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for World Cup 2022 Group E

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The “Group of Death” at this year’s World Cup gets underway as Germany face their first big test in Japan.

With Spain and Costa Rica also looming in the other half of Group E, these two teams know that results in every single match will be absolutely critical towards advancing to the knockout round.

Germany are touted as title contenders, but Japan will hope to play spoiler and knock one of the group’s two European giants out early. Germany were eliminated from the 2018 World Cup in the group stage, ending a four-tournament stretch where they reached at least the semifinals.

With so much on the line, here’s a closer look at predictions and picks for how this promising match could play out.

MORE: Follow all 2022 FIFA World Cup daily picks & predictions from The Sporting News here

Germany vs. Japan odds

Germany are heavy favorites, but in a tournament with juiced unders, the bookmakers expect goals from this match.

The over is a heavy favorite, while the two choices in both teams to score are both nearly dead even. Additionally, Japan are expected to keep it close, with the even-money spread seeing Germany as handicap favorites at only about 1.0 goals.

Odds via BetMGM (USA), Sports Interaction (Canada), SkyBet (UK), and LadBrokes (Australia).

  BetMGM Sports
SkyBet LadBrokes
Germany win -210 1.36 4/9 4/9
Draw +350 4.93 18/5 10/3
Japan win +550 7.01 6/1 11/2
Both teams
to score Y / N
-120 / -115 1.77 / 1.83 4/5, 10/11 3/4, 1/1
Over / Under
2.5 goals
-160 / +110 1.66 / 2.14 8/13, 6/5 8/3, 6/5
Germany -1.5 +120 2.24
Japan +1.5 -175 1.63

MORE: Charting Ronaldo and Messi’s incredible journey to their final World Cup in Qatar

Germany vs. Japan: 3 things to know

Germany vs. Japan team news

Germany have a few issues in the attacking third. They lost Timo Werner and Marco Reus to injuries in the run-up to the World Cup, and both will miss the tournament. So too will electric young attacker Florian Wirtz who tore his ACL in March and just wasn’t able to make it back in time. Leroy Sane will be fit despite a hamstring injury in mid-October, and so too will Thomas Muller who missed some recent time with Bayern with a hip injury.

Japan had a number of questions around their initial roster, with a few players injured but brought to the World Cup. It would appear all those players are on track to play, including Takefusa KuboTakuma AsanoKo Itakura, and Ao Tanaka. One player who did require a replacement was Yuta Nakayama who was named to the initial roster despite an Achilles tear but was unable to recover in time, replaced by Shuto Machino.

MORE: Full injury tracker for all 32 teams at the 2022 FIFA World Cup

Germany vs. Japan key stats

  • Japan and Germany have played each other twice, both friendlies, with Germany winning one and the other finishing level.
  • Eight players in the Japan squad play their club football in the Bundesliga.
  • With an average age of 26.7, Germany have the 12th-youngest squad at the World Cup. Japan, at 27.8, have the ninth-oldest.

Germany vs. Japan match facts

  • Date: Tuesday, November 22
  • Kickoff Time: 8:00 a.m. ET / 1:00 p.m. GMT / 12:00 a.m. AEDT (Wed, Nov. 23)
  • Location: Khalifa International Stadium
  • Official: Ivan Barton (El Salvador)

Germany vs. Japan prediction

  • Moneyline lean: Germany (-210)
  • Against the spread lean: Japan +1.5 (-175)
  • Score prediction: Germany 2-1 Japan

I have selected Japan to make it out of this brutal group in an upset, but it won’t be easy with Germany up first. I like Japan, a very talented and organized team, to produce a result in the final two matches, especially against Spain, but they will struggle against an electric and excitable Germany squad.

The attacking injuries for Germany have hurt, and they won’t be able to run up the score in this game, which is why I like Japan to keep it close, but ultimately, it will be tough to pick up points in this first match. It will be up to Japan to secure results in the final two games if they want to reach the knockout round.

MORE: How to watch Germany vs. Japan in World Cup Group E play

Germany vs. Japan: best bet

A match between two good attacking sides should produce an entertaining 90 minutes. While I don’t quite trust Japan to find the back of the net enough to give both teams to score a look, I do think there are goals in this game.

Germany vs. Japan best bet

  • Pick: Jamal Musiala to score or assist a goal
  • Odds: +115 (FanDuel)

The young Bayern Munich star is a popular pick for Best Young Player at the World Cup, and it should start early on. Still just 19 years old, Musiala has 12 goals and 10 assists for Bayern this season across all competitions, and with the attacking injuries to Germany, there’s no reason he won’t be in the lineup.

Musiala’s 9.77 xG+xA in Bundesliga play ranks him second amongst all German top-flight players with at least 3.0 in both categories, behind only Vincenzo Grifo of Freiburg. Germany legend Lothar Matthaus called Musiala “Messi-like”, while Owen Hargreaves said that Musiala reminds him of Kaka. Feed me Musiala goal contributions.

Germany vs. Japan prop bet

  • Pick: Over 9.5 corners
  • Odds: +105 (BetMGM)

While it might be a little hard to trust the over in this match, as goal scoring chances could be kept somewhat under wraps, the end-to-end action will still be there.

These are two teams that love to go forward with speed, and that should result in a positive and exciting game flow. Even while getting beaten, Japan still manage to secure set-pieces, as they did in a 1-0 friendly loss to Brazil back in June. In that game, the Samurai Blue were out-shot 21-7, as they are likely to be against Germany, but still held 48 percent possession and secured seven corners.

Germany, for their part, can almost hit the total themselves. They put up nine corners in a pre-World Cup friendly against Oman, plus six in a 1-1 Nations League draw with Hungary in June. This game will be a fun one to watch, and action should result in corners, even if 9.5 is a very high bar to clear.

Germany vs. Japan flier bet

  • Pick: Germany to come from behind and win
  • Odds: +575 (BetMGM)

Germany have made a habit of getting into some trouble in their recent results. Die Mannschaft coughed up the first goal to Italy and Hungary in recent Nations League matches, before coming back to draw both. While Germany should win this match, it might have to come via the comeback if Japan can punch them in the mouth early.


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