A heated battle for Group A qualification will hit the field Tuesday as Ecuador and Senegal look for a spot in the World Cup Round of 16.
With the Netherlands taking on hosts Qatar and expected to gather all three points to top the group, these two teams are likely playing for the lone other qualification spot in Group A. With Ecuador on four points and Senegal on three, it’s all up for grabs in this game.
Both teams have looked lively at times, but Ecuador especially have impressed through the group stage, especially with their draw against the Netherlands, which has them at an advantage in this match. Thanks to the extra point, just a draw will be enough for the South American side, while Senegal must win to advance.
Also worth watching is Ecuador striker Enner Valencia, who leads the World Cup Golden Boot race with three goals through the first two matches.
MORE: Ecuador vs Senegal World Cup time, live stream, TV channel, lineups
Ecuador vs Senegal odds
This match is entirely up for grabs, and the odds reflect that. Ecuador are slight favorites, but both teams have plus moneyline odds and will have a great chance of snatching all three points.
It’s thought, as is the case with most World Cup games so far, that goals will be at a premium despite the threat of Golden Boot leader Enner Valencia. The under is a huge favorite, although it’s slightly more uncertain whether both teams can find the back of the net.
to score Y / N
|-105 / -135||1.88 / 1.73||10/11, 4/5||19/20, 4/5|
|Over / Under
|+125 / -175||2.27 / 1.59||5/4, 4/7||13/10, 4/7|
Ecuador vs Senegal: 3 things to know
Ecuador vs Senegal team news
Ecuador captain Enner Valencia, the current World Cup goalscoring leader, was stretchered off in the opening match against Qatar, and his status seemed uncertain going into the second game, but he started and starred, playing “with pain” meaning he should be good to go here. Robert Arboleda and Ayrton Preciado were concerns coming into the tournament, but both made the roster and both are ready to go.
The Senegal attack has clearly suffered in the absence of star Sadio Mane who cruelly misses the World Cup with an injury sustained on Bayern Munich duty just before the tournament. Cheikhou Kouyate was missing from the Qatar game due to a thigh injury in the opener, and there are concerns about his status for the rest of the tournament. Abdou Diallo, however, is fine after his injury substitution in the opening match.
MORE: Full injury tracker for all 32 teams at the 2022 FIFA World Cup
Ecuador vs Senegal key stats
- Enner Valencia has scored Ecuador’s past six World Cup goals, one off the all-time record held by Oleg Salenko of Russia, set in 1994. Valencia’s six goals have come from just nine shots on target.
- Senegal have never beaten a South American side at the World Cup, with one loss (1-0 vs Colombia, 2018) and one draw (3-3 vs Uruguay, 2002).
- Senegal defeated Ecuador 1-0 in their only previous meeting, in a 2002 pre-World Cup friendly.
Ecuador vs Senegal match facts
- Date: Tuesday, November 29
- Kickoff Time: 10:00 a.m. ET / 3:00 p.m. GMT / 2:00 a.m. AEDT (Wed, Nov. 30)
- Location: Khalifa International Stadium
- Official: Clement Turpin (France)
Ecuador vs Senegal prediction
- Moneyline lean: Ecuador (+140)
- Against the spread lean: Ecuador -0.5 (+130)
- Score prediction: Ecuador 2-0 Senegal
It’s hard to see Ecuador not coming away with a victory in this match. Their disruption has been enjoyable to watch, as they even had the Netherlands on their heels. Senegal, meanwhile, were beaten on expected goals by Qatar, only truly putting the game to bed late on, and while they matched up well against the Netherlands, they never truly looked a threat. I know Ecuador only need a draw here, but they shouldn’t stray from their approach that’s worked wonders so far, and therefore I only see one result here.
MORE: How Group A looks heading into matchday three
Ecuador vs Senegal: best bet
- Pick: Ecuador to win & Enner Valencia to score
- Odds: +300 (BetMGM)
Normally, I advise against pairing results and goalscorers like this, but it makes sense here. It’s reductive to say that Enner Valencia is the leader in the tournament goalscoring charts, but there’s a reason why he’s there — he’s in great form, and he is the Ecuador attack.
Some teams just have a pure target man they aim for every time they build into the attacking third, and for Ecuador, he’s the guy. Very similarly to how Manchester City put everything on a platter for Erling Haaland, Valencia is the end result of all their build-up.
Ecuador have been spectacular at troubling their opponents going forward and unsettling them in possession. Senegal conceded a goal and 0.96 xG to Qatar, who are not up to the level of competition, and therefore against this energetic and disruptive Ecuador side, the South Americans should advance comfortably.