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Arsenal vs Man City prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Premier League title match

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A classic, heavyweight clash between No. 1 and No. 2 in the Premier League table springs to life from the Emirates Stadium as title favorites Arsenal host Manchester City.

A Premier League championship race that felt on the brink of being over just a few weeks ago has now been reenergized, as Man City would pull into a lead atop the table with a victory in this match. Arsenal’s advantage, once eight points, is now down to just three with goal difference in favor of the opponent.

Both sides have displayed flaws in recent weeks amidst an extremely deep and challenging Premier League membership, but neither has yet capitulated in a title race that could go down to the wire. However, it would not be hyperbole to believe that victory for either side in this match would put that team in pole position to lift the trophy at the season’s end.

It’s a good thing this match falls on the day after Valentine’s Day, because there will be no love lost in the Premier League title fight. It quite simply doesn’t get more intense, important, or meaningful than top versus second in the English top flight.

MORE: Premier League top goal scorers as Erling Haaland chases league records

Arsenal vs Man City odds

Despite Arsenal’s exceptional home form this season, unbeaten at the Emirates, Manchester City are a slight favorite on hostile ground. That’s no surprise, as the betting market has stuck with Man City for much of the season, despite Arsenal’s significant advantage atop the Premier League table. It took Arsenal pushing to an eight point lead for them to become title favorites, and with that lead back down to just three, Man City have retaken the mantle.

While the betting market does believe that both teams will find the back of the net with relative certainty, there are questions regarding the overall game flow of this match. The over 2.5 goals total is only a slight favorite, meaning there’s respect shown for two of the top three defensive setups in the Premier League.

Odds via BetMGM (USA), Sports Interaction (Canada), SkyBet (UK), and Neds (Australia).

  BetMGM Sports
SkyBet Neds
Arsenal win +185 +174 19/10 2.85
Draw +240 +224 5/2 3.40
Man City win +140 +150 13/10 2.35
Both teams
to score Y / N
-155 / +105 -167 / +106 8/13, 6/5 1.62 / 2.20
Over / Under
2.5 goals
-130 / -110 -123 / -103 4/5, 10/11 1.82 / 1.98
Man City -0.5 +125 +134
Arsenal +0.5 -185 -173

Arsenal vs Man City: 3 things to know

Arsenal vs Man City match facts

  • Date: Wednesday, February 15
  • Kickoff Time: 2:30 pm ET / 7:30 pm GMT / 6:30 am AEDT (Thu, Feb. 16)
  • Location: Emirates Stadium (London, England)
  • Official: Anthony Taylor

Arsenal vs Man City team news

Long-term absentees Gabriel Jesus and Mohamed Elneny remain out for this match, and Emile Smith Rowe is still working back from a thigh injury, but otherwise Arsenal have a fully fit squad. Reiss Nelson has returned to training in his recovery from a thigh problem, but this match may come just a tad early for the young winger.

The biggest focus for Man City will be on star striker Erling Haaland who was withdrawn over the weekend at halftime of the win over Aston Villa. Haaland’s injury doesn’t seem concerning, and he should be available, as Pep Guardiola stated after the match that his forward could have stayed on the pitch had it been a tighter match. If Haaland can’t go, it would be Julian Alvarez to step in up front. The only other concern for Guardiola is centre-back John Stones who has been sidelined for a few weeks with a foot injury.

MORE: Updated Premier League table with title, Champions League, and relegation race breakdowns

Arsenal vs Man City key stats

  • In six matches against each other, Pep Guardiola has won five and Mikel Arteta only one, with the Gunners boss triumphing in the 2020 FA Cup semifinal.
  • Man City have won six consecutive matches against Arsenal in all competitions.
  • Man City have won 22 consecutive Premier League matches on a Wednesday, the longest winning streak by one club on one day in the league’s history.
  • Arsenal have lost their last eight league matches against defending Premier League champions, with six coming against Man City. They have lost ten straight to Man City in the Premier League, the club’s longest-ever losing streak against a single club.
  • Only two players in Premier League history have scored twice against Man City for two different clubs — Andy Carroll (Newcastle and Liverpool) and Darren Bent (Aston Villa and Sunderland). Leandro Trossard scored against Man City earlier this season for Brighton and could join this list with another in this match.

Arsenal vs Man City prediction

  • Moneyline lean: Draw (+240)
  • Against the spread lean: Arsenal +0.5 (-185)
  • Score prediction: Arsenal 2-2 Man City

Very few times in recent memory do fans get treated to a first versus second matchup in the second half of the season that doesn’t end in a draw. Whether exciting, tense, or dull, these matches don’t often lead to one team taking a massive step in the title race, while the other takes a step back.

Just going back to last season, both times Man City played Liverpool the two were top of the Premier League table, and both times the match ended in a 2-2 draw. The year before that, second-place Liverpool played first-place Tottenham in December, and while Liverpool emerged victorious, it required a 90th minute winner. These matches are always tight, and taking a draw here provides both the most balanced approach and the most value.

Arsenal vs Man City: Best bet

  • Pick: Over 2.5 goals
  • Odds: -130 (BetMGM)

While Manchester City have been exceptional defensively against lower-tier sides, they have shown plenty of cracks against the league’s top clubs. In six matches so far against the Premier League’s current top five (Arsenal, Manchester United, Newcastle, and Tottenham), the teams have combined to score an insane 26 goals, or 4.3 goals per game. Throw in six more games against Liverpool and Chelsea, and you get 12 matches featuring 45 goals, or 3.75 total goals per game.

Arsenal have been defensively stellar this season on the whole, but have shown some cracks recently. Everyone at Goodison Park knew Everton would most be a threat on set pieces, and yet Arsenal still conceded the winning goal off a corner. They again conceded a header to Brentford last time out, showing a sudden weakness in the air. Like Man City, Arsenal have conceded multiple goals to big clubs a few times this year, including a 3-1 defeat to Manchester United, a 3-2 win over the Red Devils in the reverse fixture, and a 3-2 victory over Liverpool at home.

Usually in matchups of big clubs with talented attacking players, the over is a massive favorite, but with this high-powered matchup only slightly shifted towards more goals, it’s the right time to pounce on this selection at better than anticipated value.

Arsenal vs Man City prop bet

  • Pick: Bukayo Saka to score or assist a goal
  • Odds: +150 (FanDuel)

While Arsenal’s attack has been somewhat stifled of late, one player who has taken charge of the forward line has been Bukayo Saka. With Martin Odegaard and Gabriel Martinelli fading somewhat in recent weeks, it has been Saka who has carried the load for the Gunners.

Saka has registered three goals and two assists in the club’s last seven Premier League matches, accumulating 1.83 xG and 1.91 xA in that span. Meanwhile, Odegaard and Martinelli have faded into the background; Odegaard has gone three straight league matches without registering a goal contribution, while it’s been five for Martinelli.

The England international will match up against one of Nathan Ake, Aymeric Laporte, or Rico Lewis on Man City’s left flank, and none of those players are exactly a terrifying prospect for Saka. 

Arsenal vs Man City flier bet

  • Pick: Arsenal to come from behind and win or draw
  • Odds: +380 (Caesars)

This match is primed for an early Manchester City lead and a late Arsenal result at home. Man City have scored the most goals in the Premier League from minutes 16-45, with 21 of their 56 total goals coming in that timeframe, or 37.5 percent. Meanwhile, City have been known to fall apart a bit late, conceding six times from minutes 76-90, the most of any 15-minute segment this season.

Arsenal, meanwhile, improve significantly as the game goes on. They’ve scored 59 percent of their goals in the second half, the sixth-highest in the league, including a league-leading 13 goals in the first 15-minute segment out of halftime. Furthermore, while they only have six goals in the final 15 minutes of matches (middle of the Premier League pack), five of those have come at home.

The Gunners haven’t scored a second-half goal against Man City in 289 second-half minutes, and that fluky streak is primed to be broken here.

Arsenal vs Man City live stream, TV channel

MORE: Watch Premier League matches live with fuboTV in USA

MORE: Watch Arsenal vs Man City match live with fuboTV in Canada

  Date Time TV channel Streaming
USA Wed, Feb. 15 14:30 ET Peacock
UK Wed, Feb. 15 19:30 GMT Amazon Prime
Australia Thu, Feb. 16 06:30 AEST  — Optus Sport
Canada Wed, Feb. 15 14:30 ET  — fuboTV Canada
India Thu, Feb. 16 00:00 IST Star Sports Select 1 JioTV, Hotstar VIP
New Zealand Thu, Feb. 16 08:30 NZST Sky Sport Sky Go
Malaysia Thu, Feb. 16 03:30 MT Astro SuperSport 3 sooka, Astro Go
Singapore Thu, Feb. 16 03:30 SST Hub Premier 1 & 2 (Ch. 221-222) StarHub TV+
Hong Kong Thu, Feb. 16 03:30 HKST Now Premier League TV (Ch. 620-621) Now E, Now Player

UK: This Wednesday evening match in the UK will be carried by Amazon Prime’s streaming service.

USA: The match will only be available on streaming service Peacock.

Canada: Every Premier League game streams live and on demand exclusively via fuboTV.

Australia: Fans in Australia can stream matches live and on demand on Optus Sport


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