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Melbourne property expected to fall up 10 per cent as RBA looks to lift cash rate: PropTrack

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Property values in Melbourne are predicted to fall by 7-10 per cent this year. Picture: Glenn Hunt/Getty Images.

Melbourne property prices are expected to fall between 7 to 10 per cent by the years’s end, wiping up to $94,000 off the city’s $940,000 median house value, according to a new report.

The PropTrack Property Market Outlook Report found Melbourne was set to experience one of the nation’s biggest declines, after prices already tumbled 5.2 per cent last year.

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PropTrack’s forecast was based on the assumption the cash rate would rise a further 50 basis points from its current 3.1 per cent level, starting with the Reserve Bank of Australia lifting rates by 25 basis points Tuesday, and another 25 points later in the year — then remain on hold until 2023 ends.

NAB group chief economist Alan Oster last week predicted an 11 per cent drop in Melbourne prices, while Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan forecast a more modest 8 per cent reduction in national house prices.

43 Falstone Circuit, Mickleham - FOR HERALD SUN REAL ESTate

With four bedrooms, 43 Falstone Circuit, Mickleham, is on the market for $790,000-$850,000, a price a little below Melbourne’s $940,000 median house price.

PropTrack economic research director and report author Cameron Kusher.

Auction pic

A crowd at a Melbourne house auction. Picture: Rob Leeson.

PropTrack economic research director Cameron Kusher said there was “less urgency to buy and to sell at the moment” in Melbourne.

“I feel, once we stop getting changes to interest rates every month, it will give people more confidence,” Mr Kusher added.

He said if Melbourne prices ended up falling 11.8 per cent, they would be back to pre-pandemic levels.

“Melbourne’s probably most at risk of that happening, just because prices didn’t grow as much there as elsewhere because it spent so long in lockdown,” he said.

14 Carbora Dale, Greensborough - for herald sun real estate

14 Carbora Dale, Greensborough, is a four-bedroom house for sale with a $980,000-$1.06m asking range, slightly above Melbourne’s median house price.

11 Edna St, Heathmont - for herald sun real estate

This three-bedroom house at 11 Edna St, Heathmont, is for sale with a $900,000-$990,000 price range.


The report said inner-city homes were becoming more in demand. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Damian Shaw.

As Covid hit Australia in March 2020, Melbourne had a $740,000 median house price and $590,000 median unit price.

December 2022’s Melbourne median house price stood at $940,000 and the median unit price was $605,000, while regional Victoria’s median house price was $615,000, and $409,000 for units.

1 Dorothea Cres, Dromana - for herald sun real estate

Located on the Mornington Peninsula, this three-bedroom house at 1 Dorothea Cres, Dromana, has a $975,000-$1.025m asking range.

4 Hawthorn St, Coburg - for herald sun real estate

A three-bedroom house at 4 Hawthorn St, Coburg, has a $980,000-$1.07m price range.

Auction pic

Auctioneer Daniel Galea in action at a Reservoir auction. Picture: Andrew Henshaw.

Real Estate of Victoria president Andrew Meehan said it was important to remember predicted market trends were “just that, predictions”.

“The post-Covid real estate boom has placed Victorian property in a stronger position than ever before, a trend we continued to see grow in pockets of outer Melbourne and our regional areas in the last quarterly figures,” Mr Meehan said.

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