As retailers flooded their websites with last-minute Cyber Monday deals, investors were betting
stock would be the biggest winner of this year’s shopping holiday weekend.
shares (ticker: SHOP) rose 3.4% to $38.03 on Monday. The e-commerce software company said on Saturday that its merchants broke Black Friday records with $3.36 billion in sales from the start of the day in New Zealand through the end in California. Sales were up 17% from 2021, or 19% on a constant currency basis.
Raymond James analyst Brian Peterson wrote on Monday that the 17% growth was well ahead of the 8% year over year gross merchandise volume growth rate analysts are forecasting for the fourth quarter.
“We’re cognizant that Black Friday sales represented about 5% of GMV in 4Q21, and thus only represents a small sample size of quarterly GMV,” he wrote. “That said, early data points suggest that we could be in for a GMV beat as we head into 2023.”
Investors hope that trend continued on Monday. The full picture will be known in the coming days, when
is expected to release Cyber Monday details.
Oppenheimer analyst Ken Wong wrote Monday that, based on his estimates, Cyber Monday spending with Shopify vendors would need to fall off by 10% to 15% from earlier in the weekend for Shopify’s full Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend to dip below fourth-quarter merchandise volume estimates for the quarter of 8%.
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