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HomeMarketIMF Lifts Forecast for Global Growth and Says Recession Unlikely

IMF Lifts Forecast for Global Growth and Says Recession Unlikely

The IMF upgraded its predictions from October.

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AFP via Getty Images

The outlook for the global economy has brightened over the past few months as inflation slowed, the International Monetary Fund said.

The IMF upgraded its forecast for world growth to 2.9% from a previous prediction of 2.7% in October. It sees the expansion accelerating to 3.1% in 2024. In 2022, it estimates the world economy grew 3.4%.

“The year ahead will still be challenging,” said IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. “But it could well represent the turning point, with growth bottoming out and inflation declining.”

Since the last forecasts, prospects have been lifted by a resilient third-quarter, still-tight labor markets, and strong spending by households and businesses, the IMF said. Price gains are slowing after energy prices retreated in the second half, and after the most aggressive interest-rate hike campaign in a generation.

A global recession is unlikely, Gourinchas said, striking a different tone to the outlook given in October. Resurging inflation and an escalation in Russia’s war in Ukraine remain risks.

On the other hand, China’s reopening after three years of Covid-19 lockdowns is good news for manufacturing and supply chains, the IMF said.

It predicts the U.S. economy will grow 1.4% this year, down from 2% in 2022. The euro-area rate will drop to 0.7% from 3.5%, while it sees the U.K. as the only major advanced economy that will contract in 2023.

Write to Brian Swint at


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